By Steven Kefas
In 2015, when the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) ranked Armed Fulani militants as the fourth deadliest terror group in the world, Nigeria was already grappling with the brutal reality of multiple security threats. Yet nearly a decade later, as these same militants have grown exponentially more lethal, they have mysteriously vanished from international terrorism rankings —despite becoming what many security experts now consider Nigeria’s most deadly non-state armed group.
This paradox raises troubling questions about how the global community measures and responds to terrorism, particularly when it involves complex ethnoreligious conflicts in Africa. While international attention remains focused on jihadist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), a more devastating threat has been systematically erasing entire communities across Nigeria’s Middle Belt.
The Numbers Tell a Devastating Story
Recent data from the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) paints a picture of unprecedented violence that dwarfs the carnage attributed to Nigeria’s better-known terrorist organizations. Note: The following data represents preliminary research findings that have not yet been published on ORFA’s website but are based on their ongoing documentation efforts. Between October 2019 and September 2024, ORFA documented 66,656 deaths across Nigeria, of these, 36,056 were civilians. The Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) were responsible for a staggering 47% of all civilian killings —more than five times the combined death toll of Boko Haram and ISWAP, which together accounted for just 11% of civilian deaths.
These figures represent more than statistical abstractions; they reflect a systematic campaign of violence that has fundamentally altered the demographic landscape of Nigeria’s Middle Belt. The data reveals that 2.4 Christians were killed for every Muslim during this period, with proportional losses to Christian communities reaching exceptional levels. In states where attacks occur, Christians were murdered at a rate 5.2 times higher than Muslims relative to their population size.
The scope of violence extends far beyond killings. ORFA documented 13,437 incidents of extreme violence during the five-year study period, including 29,180 civilians abducted. The trajectory of kidnappings alone illustrates the escalating nature of the crisis: from 1,665 civilians abducted in 2020 to 7,705 in 2022, before declining slightly to 6,255 in 2023, then rising again to 7,648 in 2024. By the end of 2024, the International Displacement Monitoring Centre reported that 3.4 million Nigerians had been forcibly displaced from their homes by conflict and violence.
A Pattern of Systematic Violence
Unlike the headline-grabbing attacks of jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP, Muslim Fulani militants violence follows a different but equally devastating pattern. ORFA’s research indicates that 79% of civilian killings are land-based community attacks, where armed groups “invade mostly small Christian farming settlements to kill, rape, abduct, and burn homes.” This methodology, while less spectacular than suicide bombings or mass hostage situations, has proven far more effective at achieving long-term territorial control and demographic change.
The geographic concentration of these attacks is particularly telling. The North Central Zone and Kaduna state have borne the brunt of FEM violence. ORFA documented 3,776 incidents with civilian killings and 1,990 incidents with civilian abductions. Most of them by FEM. This concentrated campaign has effectively depopulated entire communities while military resources remain focused on the North-East and North-West regions where Boko Haram/ISWAP and Fulani bandits operate.
Recent mass casualty events underscore the escalating brutality of these attacks. The Yelwata massacre of June 13-14, 2025, stands as one of the most horrific examples, where FEM militants killed over 150 people—mostly women and children—in the farming community of Yelwata in Guma Local Government Area of Benue State. This attack followed a familiar pattern of targeting vulnerable agricultural communities during periods when people are fast asleep.
The violence is not new, but its intensity has dramatically increased. The Agatu Massacre of February-March 2016 saw between 300 and 500 people killed by FEM in Agatu Local Government Area of Benue State, marking one of the earliest large-scale coordinated attacks that would become the group’s signature methodology. More recently, the Christmas Eve massacre in Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State claimed over 200 lives, demonstrating how FEM deliberately targets Christian communities during religious celebrations to maximize psychological impact.
The Global Terrorism Index Conundrum
The disappearance of Fulani militants from GTI rankings despite their escalating lethality raises fundamental questions about how international terrorism monitoring systems categorize and prioritize threats. The GTI, published annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace, uses specific criteria to define terrorist incidents, requiring acts to be intentional, involve violence or threat of violence, and have sociopolitical objectives.
However, the framing of Fulani militia violence as “farmer-herder conflicts” or “ethnic clashes” rather than terrorism may have contributed to their exclusion from global terror rankings. This categorization problem has real-world consequences, affecting international aid allocation, security cooperation, and diplomatic pressure. When violence is labeled as communal conflict rather than terrorism, it receives less international attention and fewer resources for intervention.
The methodological approach of global terrorism databases may also inadvertently favor tracking spectacular attacks by designated terrorist organizations over systematic violence by ethnoreligious militias. While Boko Haram’s suicide bombings and mass kidnappings generated international headlines and clear database entries, the daily reality of village raids, targeted killings, and forced displacement may be underreported or miscategorized.
The Cost of Invisibility
The absence of Fulani militias from international terrorism rankings has had profound implications for Nigeria’s security response and international support. While billions of dollars in international aid and military assistance have flowed toward countering Boko Haram and ISWAP, the regions most affected by Fulani militia violence have received comparatively little attention or resources.
This mismatch between threat levels and resource allocation has allowed the crisis to metastasize. ORFA’s data shows that what security experts describe as “twin” Islamist threats—Boko Haram/ISWAP in the northeast and Fulani militias in the Middle Belt—have created a pincer effect that is reshaping Nigeria’s religious and ethnic geography.
The human cost extends beyond immediate casualties to include the systematic destruction of agricultural communities that form the backbone of Nigeria’s food security. As Christian farming communities are displaced or destroyed, the country faces not only a humanitarian crisis but also long-term food production challenges that could affect regional stability.
Questions Demanding Answers
The case of Nigeria’s invisible terror crisis demands serious examination of how the international community monitors and responds to political violence. If the deadliest group responsible for civilian casualties can operate below the radar of global terrorism indices, what other threats are being overlooked? How can monitoring systems be reformed to capture the full spectrum of political violence, regardless of whether perpetrators fit traditional terrorist profiles?
The ORFA data suggests that Nigeria is experiencing what amounts to a slow-motion genocide in its Middle Belt, with one ethnic militia group systematically targeting civilian populations based on religion and ethnicity. The pattern evident from Agatu in 2016 to Yelwata in 2025 shows a consistent strategy of mass killing designed to achieve territorial control and demographic change. Yet this crisis receives a fraction of the international attention devoted to other jihadist groups operating in Nigeria with lower casualty rates.
As Nigeria heads into an uncertain future, the international community must grapple with uncomfortable questions about selective attention to terrorism and the consequences of allowing certain forms of mass violence to remain invisible. The 36,056 civilian deaths documented by ORFA represent more than statistics—they are fathers, mothers, children, and community leaders whose lives were cut short while the world looked elsewhere.
The time has come to acknowledge that terrorism takes many forms, and the deadliest threats are not always the ones that make international headlines. Until global monitoring systems adapt to capture the full spectrum of political violence, groups like the Fulani militias will continue to operate in the shadows, leaving devastation in their wake while escaping the accountability that comes with international recognition and response.