By Steven Kefas
(PortHarcourt), Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery faces a new threat as militants in the oil-rich Rivers State issue ultimatums that could destabilize the nation’s primary revenue source amid a complex political crisis.
A chilling video emerged Thursday showing armed militants from the Niger Delta Rescue Movement (NDRM) threatening to attack oil installations in Rivers State, one of Nigeria’s largest oil producers. The militants, brandishing AK-47 rifles and other dangerous weapons from an undisclosed forest location, issued warnings that could potentially cripple Nigeria’s oil production and further destabilize an economy already on life support.
The group’s emergence comes in response to a political crisis that has seen the federal government withhold Rivers State’s allocation following a Supreme Court judgment that upheld the Martin Amaewhile-led 27-member House of Assembly as the legitimate legislative body. The Assembly subsequently issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Governor Siminalayi Fubara to present the 2025 state budget, which expired Wednesday night.
In the video lasting just over three minutes, a spokesman for the militants declared, “If the federal allocation due to Rivers state cannot be released promptly, we will have no choice but to take decisive action, including hitting oil production.” The militants also ominously advised non-indigenes to leave Rivers State for their safety, chanting “asawana, asawana” – a traditional war cry among the Ijaw people.
Economic Implications
For an economy struggling to find its footing, the timing couldn’t be worse. Nigeria’s recent modest economic gains have hinged largely on improved oil production after years of decline due to theft, vandalism, and underinvestment.
Dr. Adebayo Adegbine, a Lagos based Economist, warns that any disruption to oil production in Rivers State would deliver a devastating blow to Nigeria’s economy.
“The federal government has only recently begun to see slight improvements in oil output, which remains the backbone of our export earnings and government revenue,” Adebayo told TruthNigeria. “If militants carry through with their threats and successfully target key oil infrastructure, we could see production drop by as much as 300,000-400,000 barrels per day or even more. The ripple effects would be catastrophic – from exchange rate instability to budget deficits and delayed salary payments across multiple states.”
The threat evokes painful memories of the 2003-2009 insurgency, when militant groups like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) reduced Nigeria’s oil production by more than 50 percent through a coordinated campaign of pipeline bombings, facility attacks, and kidnappings of oil workers. At its peak, the violence slashed production from 2.2 million barrels per day to barely 1 million, costing the nation an estimated $100 billion in lost revenue in 10 years. The petroleum industry’s vulnerability was exposed as multinational companies declared force majeure and evacuated non-essential staff, while insurance premiums for operations in the region skyrocketed. It wasn’t until the 2009 amnesty program offered militants training, stipends and reintegration opportunities that relative stability returned to the region. “We’ve been here before,” notes energy consultant Ebi Johnson to TruthNigeria. “And the economic recovery took years, even with higher global oil prices than we have today.”
Nigeria’s economy has barely emerged from a period of hyperinflation, with the naira stabilizing slightly after months of freefall. The Central Bank has been working to rebuild foreign reserves, largely dependent on oil export earnings.
“We’re looking at a potential economic catastrophe if oil installations are attacked,” explains financial analyst Chika Okonkwo to TruthNigeria. “With government borrowing already at unsustainable levels and debt servicing consuming nearly 97% of revenue, any significant drop in oil output would likely trigger another currency crisis and inflation spike that could push millions more Nigerians into poverty.”
Why Americans Should Care
The brewing crisis has implications well beyond Nigeria’s borders, particularly for American consumers and businesses. As one of the largest oil suppliers to the United States, Nigeria’s production disruptions directly impacts global energy markets and prices at American pumps. Rivers state produces 344,000 barrels of crude per day.
Security Overstretched
The threat of renewed militancy in the Niger Delta represents more than just an economic challenge – it poses a serious security dilemma for a military already stretched across multiple conflict zones.
Dr Walid Abdullahi, a security consultant, describes the situation as potentially unmanageable.
“The Nigerian military is already fighting on at least four fronts – against Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Northeast, containing Lakurawa terrorists in the Northwest, managing deadly farmer-herder conflicts in the North Central states, and addressing banditry across multiple regions,” Abdullahi explained to TruthNigeria. “Opening another active theater in the Niger Delta would severely strain our operational capacity and effectiveness.”
The complexity of Niger Delta operations presents unique challenges. The region’s network of creeks, swamps, and waterways requires specialized training and equipment, including naval assets that are already in short supply.
“The terrain in the Niger Delta is notoriously difficult for conventional military operations,” notes Dr. Abdullahi “Previous militant campaigns demonstrated how relatively small groups could effectively evade security forces while targeting critical infrastructure. The military simply doesn’t have the resources or specialized units needed to secure thousands of kilometers of pipelines and oil facilities while maintaining operations in other conflict zones.”
Political Dimensions
The crisis is deeply rooted in the political standoff between incumbent Governor, Similaye Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. The militants explicitly mentioned Wike in their statement, accusing him of orchestrating the crisis to undermine Fubara’s administration.
“We call on President Bola Tinubu to intervene immediately and put a stop to the action of the Minister, Nyesom Wike, and his associates whose intent is to drag Rivers state to avoidable crisis,” the group stated.
Political analysts suggest the federal government faces a precarious balancing act. “Heavy-handed intervention could further inflame tensions, while inaction might allow the situation to deteriorate beyond control.” Says Michael Udeme, Uyo-based political scientist to TruthNigeria
Path Forward
Security experts emphasize that only a political solution can prevent potential catastrophe.
“Military action alone cannot resolve this situation,” warns Udeme. “The federal government must immediately convene all stakeholders – including Fubara, Wike, community leaders, and civil society – to address the legitimate grievances while isolating those seeking to exploit the situation for violence.”
For ordinary Nigerians already struggling with economic hardship, the prospect of disrupted oil production represents yet another threat to their livelihoods and stability.
As Rivers State residents anxiously await developments, the nation holds its breath, hoping that cooler heads will prevail before the powder keg in the Niger Delta ignites a crisis Nigeria can ill afford.
